How ScorePlay calculates and displays probabilities across multiple blockchain networks.

Note: This document primarily applies to USDC participation (where permitted). Free voting uses a simple voting system with probabilities displayed for informational purposes.

Market Types (USDC Participation Only)

If you choose to participate with USDC (where permitted), ScorePlay supports two market types:

V1 Markets (Simple Outcomes)

Pool-based markets for:

• Match winner (Team A, Draw, Team B)
• Simple binary outcomes

How it works:

• All votes go into a shared pool
• Probabilities calculated from total amounts per outcome
• Payouts distributed proportionally to winners

V2 Markets (Multi-Option)

LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) based markets for:

• Exact score predictions
• Complex multi-outcome markets

How it works:

• Uses automated market maker (AMM) mechanics
• Probabilities adjust dynamically based on liquidity
• More efficient for markets with many outcomes

Best Probabilities Selection

When an event is available on multiple chains (USDC participation only), ScorePlay:

1. Fetches probabilities from all chains where the event exists
2. Compares payout multipliers for each outcome
3. Displays the highest probabilities available
4. Allows chain switching if user prefers a different chain

Why Probabilities Vary

Probabilities can differ between chains due to:

• Different liquidity - More votes on one chain = different probabilities
• Market version - V1 vs V2 markets calculate differently
• Timing - Probabilities update as votes are placed
• Chain-specific factors - Network fees, user preferences

Probability Calculation

V1 Markets

Probability = Amount on Outcome / Total Pool

Example:

• $100 on Team A
• $50 on Draw
• $50 on Team B
• Total Pool = $200

Team A probability = $100 / $200 = 50%

V2 Markets

V2 uses LMSR formula that considers:

• Current liquidity in the market
• Your position size
• Impact of your vote on probabilities

Probabilities are calculated dynamically and shown in the position preview before you confirm.

Probability Display

Users can view probabilities as:

• Percentages (default): Shows percentage chance (e.g., 45%, 30%, 25%)
• Multipliers: Shows payout multiplier (e.g., 2.22x, 3.33x, 4.00x)

Both represent the same information, just in different formats.

Market Availability

Not all events are available on all chains. Factors include:

• Event creation time
• Chain support for market type
• Liquidity requirements

The app automatically shows only chains where the event is available.

Note: Free voting displays probabilities for informational purposes but does not require market availability on specific chains.

Real-Time Updates

Probabilities update in real-time as:

• New votes are placed
• Positions are closed
• Market liquidity changes

Always check current probabilities before placing a vote, as they may have changed.

Best Practices

1. Compare chains - Check if better probabilities exist on another chain (USDC participation only)
2. Check market version - V2 markets may have different mechanics (USDC participation only)
3. Consider liquidity - Higher liquidity = more stable probabilities (USDC participation only)
4. Watch for updates - Probabilities change as votes are placed

Free Voting

For free voting, probabilities are displayed for informational purposes:

• Based on historical data and AI analysis
• Help inform your voting decisions
• Do not require blockchain networks or market liquidity
• Used to help you make more accurate predictions

For technical details, see Networks & Contracts.